KUALA LUMPUR: Affin Hwang Investment Bank Bhd said production of crude palm oil (CPO) in Malaysia will rise starting in May and maybe reach a peak in September or October of this year.

The investment banks said in a report today that Malaysia’s CPO production decreased significantly by 2.8 per cent year over year (y-o-y) to 5.12 million metric tonne (MT) during the first four months of 2023 (4M23).

In April, Malaysia’s CPO output decreased by 7.1 per cent month-over-month (m-o-m), to 1.2 million tonnes, while production fell in Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah by 8.2 per cent and 11.3 per cent MoM, respectively, to 614.2 thousand tonnes, and 314 thousand tonnes. 

On the other hand, it said that production in Sarawak increased by 1.2 per cent m-o-m to 268.3k MT. 

“The decline in mom production was partly due to fewer workings days in April as compared to March given the Hari Raya Aidilfitri festivities.

“Overall, we expect Malaysia’s CPO production to increase in the 2023 season, potentially in the range of 18.6m to 18.8m MT, on the back of the easing labour shortage as we expect more workers to enter Malaysia in the second half of the year,” the bank said.

Meanwhile, Affin Hwang said Malaysia’s palm-oil exports were at 1.07m MT in April, a 27.8 per cent decline MoM, as CPO lost its price competitiveness against some of its rival edible oils like rapeseed oil, sunflower oil, and soybean oil.

However, it said for 4M23, Malaysia’s exports were still higher by 4.5 per cent YoY to 4.83m MT.

On the inventory level, Affin Hwang noted that Malaysia’s palm-oil inventory in April declined further to 1.5m MT, a drop of 176.5k MT or 10.5 per cent MoM.

“This is the lowest level since March 22’s inventory of 1.47m MT. Despite the plunge in CPO exports in April, Malaysia’s MoM inventory level continued to decline, partly attributable to an increase in domestic consumption volume in April. 

“The higher domestic consumption could potentially be attributable to the Aidilfitri celebration,” it added.

Source : NST