Monthly Stock Comparison 2023
| Country : China | ||||||||||||
| Oils and Fats Ending Stocks | ||||||||||||
| Â | Palm Oil (MT) | Soybean Oil (MT) | Sunflower Oil (MT) | Rapeseed Oil (MT) | Other Oils (MT) | Total Ending Stocks (MT) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Â | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 |
| January | 918,000 | 407,800 | 677,300 | 745,000 | – | – | 147,500 | 303,900 | – | – | 1,744,800 | 1,456,700 |
| February | 943,400 | 369,100 | 596,900 | 699,600 | – | – | 200,500 | 327,000 | – | – | 1,740,800 | 1,395,700 |
| March | 911,800 | 345,400 | 541,100 | 680,800 | – | – | 240,600 | 304,400 | – | – | 1,693,500 | 1,330,600 |
| April | 762,400 | 290,900 | 631,900 | 791,300 | – | – | 359,600 | 289,000 | – | – | 1,753,900 | 1,371,200 |
| May | 543,500 | 238,200 | 709,400 | 861,400 | – | – | 473,500 | 277,500 | – | – | 1,726,400 | 1,377,100 |
| June | 453,200 | 193,000 | 891,200 | 888,800 | – | – | 452,400 | 221,400 | – | – | 1,796,800 | 1,303,500 |
| July | 634,200 | 272,300 | 983,200 | 784,100 | – | – | 404,500 | 165,100 | – | – | 2,021,900 | 1,221,500 |
| August | 627,500 | 305,600 | 976,300 | 704,800 | – | – | 430,400 | 139,900 | – | – | 2,034,200 | 1,150,300 |
| September | 719,500 | 514,700 | 966,400 | 706,600 | – | – | 394,100 | 126,900 | – | – | 2,080,200 | 1,348,200 |
| October | 867,100 | 675,300 | 877,400 | 670,700 | – | – | 367,500 | 112,400 | – | – | 2,112,000 | 1,458,400 |
| November | 904,700 | 874,300 | 930,600 | 611,500 | – | – | 389,500 | 169,800 | – | – | 2,224,800 | 1,655,600 |
| December | 852,100 | 969,600 | 907,700 | 624,800 | – | – | 410,000 | 107,000 | – | – | 2,169,800 | 1,701,400 |
Accumulated stock of the PO, SBO and RSO in December 2023 dropped for the first time after witnessing a 6-month consecutive growth since June, ended the year with 2.17 million MT of stock in China. The decline of December stock by 2.5% or 55,000 m-o-m was driven by the retreat of PO and SBO stock, but limited due to the increase in RSO stock in the same month.
Palm oil stock-building trend was being reversed surprisingly in December for the first time since such scenario was last seen in 2013, of which after that, PO stock was always increased in December m-o-m. The PO stock dropped by 5.8% or 52,600 MT to 852,100 MT against Nov’23 stock level, which may indicate the decline in PO import in December. Despite the unavailability of December import data, the estimated drop in PO import was partly supported by the fact that the import margin has been on an average of –RMB250/MT in Jul-Dec period. Such long period of high negative import margin also was something that never seen since it was last taken place in Jan-Apr 2016. This indicates that the demand of PO in China is rather weak, which also could be attributed to the narrowing real discount of PL against SBO from RMB835/MT Sep’23 to RMB522.50.
Similar to PO, the SBO stock also declined in December by 2.5% m-o-m to 907,700 MT after the short-live one-month increase was recorded in Nov’23. The decline in SBO stock could be attributed to the slowdown in soybean crushing as the crushing margin turned negative to as much as RMB245/MT or on an average of RMB205/MT in Dec’23, against the negative crushing margin of RMB92.50/MT in Nov’23. As such the output of SBO and SBM dropped and led to the decline of SBO stock.  The negative margin came as the demand for livestock products was rather weak which led to the drop in pork and eggs prices since early Sep’23, and subsequently putting pressure on animal feed ingredients such as soybean meal and etc.
Different from PO and SBO, the stock level of RSO extended its upward trend for 2nd consecutive month in Dec’23, and increased by 5.3% or 20,500 MT to reach 410,000 MT which is also a 4-month high level. Despite the poor demand from animal feed sector, the crushing of rapeseed is estimated to remain high due to the high import volume of rapeseed in recent month. Nevertheless, the overall weak demand for oils & fats limit the pace of growth in the uptake of RSO during the same month despite the price premium of RSO against SBO has narrowed from approximately RMB600/MT in Nov’23 to RMB400/MT in Dec’23.  The stock level of RSO may hold firmly at the current level if the premium against SBO stays or go lower. Otherwise, the RSO stock will skyrocket as the season for peak demand for RSM from aquafeed sector will arrive in late Jan/early Feb, which will encourage high rapeseed crushing activities, and higher RSO output.
Source: MPOC Market Intelligence
Stock figures will be updated no later than the 10th of every month
*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.
| Country : India | ||||||||||||
| Oils and Fats Ending Stocks | ||||||||||||
| Â | Palm Oil (MT) | Soybean Oil (MT) | Sunflower Oil (MT) | Rapeseed Oil (MT) | Other Oils (MT) | Total Ending Stocks (MT) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Â | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 |
| January | 667,054 | 398,777 | 169,253 | 154,598 | 229,212 | 154,647 | – | 3,637 | – | – | 1,065,519 | 711,659 |
| February | 623,359 | 336,270 | 113,401 | 107,166 | 194,138 | 83,065 | – | 43 | – | – | 930,898 | 526,544 |
| March | 567,775 | 349,212 | 138,644 | 127,988 | 169,358 | 119,115 | – | – | – | 10 | 875,777 | 596,325 |
| April | 448,951 | 251,594 | 132,989 | 101,105 | 175,111 | 80,225 | – | – | – | – | 756,960 | 432,924 |
| May | 326,338 | 240,865 | 138,245 | 166,426 | 267,748 | 100,435 | – | – | – | – | 732,331 | 507,726 |
| June | 387,948 | 134,513 | 231,114 | 143,163 | 174,656 | 1,517 | – | – | – | – | 793,718 | 279,193 |
| July | 445,774 | 40,450 | 274,344 | 168,593 | 200,860 | 249 | – | – | – | – | 920,978 | 209,292 |
| August | 758,003 | 332,225 | 291,994 | 190,479 | 281,153 | 116,228 | – | – | – | – | 1,331,150 | 638,932 |
| September | 681,161 | 484,369 | 348,967 | 181,360 | 345,494 | 103,486 | – | – | – | – | 1,375,622 | 769,215 |
| October | 464,129 | 434,677 | 260,621 | 119,851 | 222,473 | 64,049 | – | – | – | – | 947,223 | 618,577 |
| November | 498,092 | 580,515 | 246,522 | 61,140 | 130,077 | 110,552 | – | – | – | – | 874,691 | 752,207 |
| December | 548,281 | 706,996 | 173,597 | 93,666 | 133,489 | 100,165 | – | – | – | – | 855,367 | 900,827 |
December 2023 stocks are 6% lower than December 2022 and 3% lower than the previous month, November 2023. POP stocks, at 548k, are higher by 10% compared to the 498k the previous month, November 2023; but 22% lower when compared to the December 2022 stocks. Soft Oils stocks have registered an increase of 58% compared to December 2022 and 19% compared to November 2023. CDSBO stocks rose 85% compared to December 2022 but fell 30% compared to November 2023. CSFO stocks, for the same periods, were higher by 33% higher and 2%. The significant increase in Soft Oils stocks compared to November 2022 can be partially attributed to the tight supply situation of Soft Oils, in December 2022 due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In POP, RBD Olein stocks at 134k, are similar to the 134K in November 2023. At the same time, CPO stocks rose 13% to 365k from 321k in November 2023. The Price competitiveness of POP will continue to influence the composition of the import basket.
Source: MPOC Market Intelligence
Stock figures will be updated no later than the 10th of every month
*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.
| Country : Pakistan | ||||||||||||
| Oils and Fats Ending Stocks | ||||||||||||
| Â | Palm Oil (MT) | Soybean Oil (MT) | Sunflower Oil (MT) | Rapeseed Oil (MT) | Other Oils (MT) | Total Ending Stocks (MT) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Â | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 |
| January | 369,445 | 273,242 | 33,500 | 16,000 | – | – | 2,000 | – | – | – | 404,945 | 289,242 |
| February | 418,415 | 203,365 | 37,900 | 10,500 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 456,315 | 213,865 |
| March | 297,380 | 186,865 | 19,000 | 25,740 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 316,380 | 212,605 |
| April | 249,980 | 267,230 | 20,500 | 9,200 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 270,780 | 276,430 |
| May | 298,500 | 170,390 | 33,000 | 24,150 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 331,500 | 194,540 |
| June | 335,198 | 58,720 | 30,450 | 37,200 | 4,500 | – | 8,000 | – | – | – | 378,148 | 95,920 |
| July | 416,532 | 249,830 | 39,800 | 36,600 | 3,900 | – | 4,200 | – | – | – | 464,432 | 286,430 |
| August | 368,713 | 289,756 | 43,550 | 32,000 | 2,500 | – | 9,000 | – | – | – | 423,763 | 321,756 |
| September | 411,008 | 278,870 | 55,700 | 37,330 | 14,250 | – | 7,000 | – | – | – | 487,958 | 316,200 |
| October | 489,175 | 214,078 | 45,350 | 43,120 | 11,750 | – | 6,800 | – | – | – | 553,075 | 257,198 |
| November | 426,304 | 286,370 | 36,450 | 32,300 | 12,500 | – | 4,000 | – | – | – | 479,254 | 318,670 |
| December | 348,000 | 332,105 | 35,000 | 21,500 | 11,500 | – | – | – | – | – | 394,500 | 353,605 |
At the end of December 2023, the edible oil stocks at Port Qasim Authority (PQA) and Karachi Port Trust (KPT) have recorded a figure of 394,500 MT which is 17.68% less than the closing stocks of the previous month. However, if we compare the closing stocks of 2023 with the same period in 2022, then the December 2023 stocks are 11.5% higher than the 353,695 MT recorded in December 2022.
The edible oil stocks have continued their declining trend for the second month in a row which his primarily due to lower than average imports of oils and fats. The imports of edible oil in the month of December was below 210,000 MT which led to higher consumption from stocks. This trend is likely to continue in the month of January as well as the imports are not likely to pick up and manufacturers will also start using higher volume due to the arrival of Ramadan.
Out of the total 394,500MT of stocks available at Port Qasim Authority and Karachi Port, the stocks of RBD palm olein is showing the highest share of 52.22% followed by palm oil 35.99%. Palm oil and its various fractions have a share of 88.21% in the total ending stocks.
Source: MPOC Market Intelligence
Stock figures will be updated no later than the 10th of every month
*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.
| Country : Bangladesh | ||||||||||||
| Oils and Fats Ending Stocks | ||||||||||||
| Â | Palm Oil (MT) | Soybean Oil (MT) | Sunflower Oil (MT) | Rapeseed Oil (MT) | Other Oils (MT) | Total Ending Stocks (MT) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Â | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 |
| January | 131,530 | 24,470 | 49,830 | 19,050 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 181,360 | 43,520 |
| February | 138,870 | 59,280 | 54,900 | 25,830 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 193,770 | 85,110 |
| March | 149,100 | 88,180 | 67,900 | 28,700 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 217,000 | 123,880 |
| April | 138,960 | 36,688 | 79,520 | 28,817 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 218,480 | 68,005 |
| May | 113,030 | 28,635 | 70,550 | 25,525 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 183,580 | 54,160 |
| June | 91,540 | 21,525 | 62,760 | 19,910 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 154,300 | 41,435 |
| July | 99,450 | 52,000 | 71,990 | 54,530 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 171,440 | 106,530 |
| August | 102,170 | 76,450 | 44,077 | 75,400 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 146,247 | 151,850 |
| September | 94,480 | 140,700 | 38,440 | 114,560 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 132,920 | 255,260 |
| October | 134,230 | 220,345 | 55,220 | 93,775 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 189,450 | 314,120 |
| November | 127,780 | 184,830 | 23,830 | 82,940 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 151,610 | 267,770 |
| December | 160,090 | 169,135 | 26,850 | 53,715 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 186,940 | 222,850 |
In December 2023, stocks faced a notable decline of 19.21% compared to the same period in the previous year, December 2022, while showing a rebound with a 23.30% increase from the preceding month, November 2023. These fluctuations can be attributed to constraints on palm oil (PO) imports due to export limitations imposed by Indonesia and a decline or inadequacy of US Dollar reserves in the Central Bank for payments. Palm oil (PO) stocks saw a modest rise of 25.29% compared to November 2023 levels, and soft oil stocks also increased by 12.67% during the same period. The ongoing and fluctuating situation in Ukraine is anticipated to continue influencing the import basket composition, particularly in the case of soybean oil (SBO) and palm oil.
Source: MPOC Market Intelligence
Due to unforeseen circumstances, stock figures for Bangladesh will be delayed
*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.
| Country : USA | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oils and Fats Ending Stocks | ||||||||||||
| Â | Palm Oil (MT) | Soybean Oil (MT)* | Sunflower Oil (MT)* | Rapeseed Oil (MT) | Other Oils (MT) | Total Ending Stocks (MT)* | ||||||
| Â | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 | 2023 | 2022 |
| January | 159,000 | 154,000 | 878,000 | 942,000 | 26,000 | 23,000 | 102,000 | 52,000 | 116,000 | 113,000 | 1,281,000 | 1,284,000 |
| February | 159,000 | 154,000 | 878,000 | 942,000 | 26,000 | 23,000 | 102,000 | 52,000 | 116,000 | 113,000 | 1,281,000 | 1,284,000 |
| March | 159,000 | 154,000 | 878,000 | 896,000 | 26,000 | 23,000 | 131,000 | 77,000 | 116,000 | 113,000 | 1,310,000 | 1,263,000 |
| April | 159,000 | 159,000 | 878,000 | 774,000 | 26,000 | 23,000 | 131,000 | 88,000 | 116,000 | 113,000 | 1,310,000 | 1,157,000 |
| May | 159,000 | 159,000 | 831,000 | 763,000 | 29,000 | 23,000 | 120,000 | 88,000 | 116,000 | 113,000 | 1,255,000 | 1,146,000 |
| June | 159,000 | 159,000 | 833,000 | 754,000 | 29,000 | 23,000 | 94,000 | 71,000 | 116,000 | 113,000 | 1,231,000 | 1,120,000 |
| July | 159,000 | 159,000 | 831,000 | 822,000 | 29,000 | 23,000 | 79,000 | 71,000 | 116,000 | 113,000 | 1,214,000 | 1,188,000 |
| August | 159,000 | 159,000 | 826,000 | 828,000 | 29,000 | 23,000 | 86,000 | 67,000 | 116,000 | 113,000 | 1,216,000 | 1,190,000 |
| September | 159,000 | 159,000 | 788,000 | 837,000 | 29,000 | 23,000 | 87,000 | 73,000 | 116,000 | 113,000 | 1,179,000 | 1,205,000 |
| October | 159,000 | 159,000 | 715,000 | 843,000 | 29,000 | 23,000 | 79,000 | 81,000 | 116,000 | 116,000 | 1,098,000 | 1,222,000 |
| November | 159,000 | 159,000 | 715,000 | 862,000 | 29,000 | 23,000 | 80,000 | 79,000 | 116,000 | 116,000 | 1,099,000 | 1,239,000 |
| December | 159,000 | 159,000 | 715,000 | 862,000 | 29,000 | 23,000 | 90,000 | 86,000 | 116,000 | 116,000 | 1,109,000 | 1,246,000 |
US ending stock reported a total of 1,109,000 MT for December 2023, reflecting an increment of 0.6% when compared to the previous month. From that amount, rapeseed oil ending stock increased by 12.5%. No changes were recorded for the ending stock of palm oil, soybean oil and sunflower oil. USDA estimated the 2023/24 Brazilian soybean crop to be around 157 million MT while Brazilian National Supply (CONAB) estimated the crop to reach 155.3 million MT. However, lower estimates were given by Brazilian farmers group at only 135 million MT (Aprosoja) and 143.3 million MT (Agronegociois). This is due to prolonged adverse weather in Brazil key producing regions. The share of US soybean oil used in the country’s domestic biofuel industry has diminished significantly in recent months. Instead of using the local soybean oil, US biofuel producers are increasing the intake of Argentine soybean oil. In addition, there was a recent approval for the usage of neutralized soybean oil from Argentina as the feedstock in Californian biofuel market.Â
Source: *USDA, MPOC Estimates
*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.
