oil may gain to RM3,300 a tonne in the next few weeks and extend
gains in 2011, says Godrej International director Dorab Mistry.
SINGAPORE: Edible oil prices may climb as growth in worldwide
supply fails to keep pace with the rise in demand for a third year, with
weather patterns hurting crops, according to Godrej International Ltd
Director Dorab Mistry.
Palm oil may gain to RM3,300 a tonne in
the next few weeks and extend gains in 2011, according to remarks Mistry
prepared for delivery at the DCE oilseed conference in Guangzhou, China
yesterday.
The contract ended November 4 at RM3,191. Soyabean
oil in Argentina, the largest exporter, may climb to US$1,250 (US$1 =
RM3.08) a tonne by January, according to the remarks, raising Mistry’s
forecast from US$1,050.
Higher prices may add to costlier food,
fanning inflation. World food prices climbed to the highest level in
more than two years in October on more expensive meat, cereals, cooking
oils and sugar, the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization
said. Mistry correctly predicted in March that palm oil would exceed
RM3,000 after June on lower yields.
“We have looming supply problems in wheat, in rice, in corn, in canola,
in sun seed and, above all, in soyabeans,” the text said.
“We must therefore begin to give up too many thoughts of any meaningful decline in vegetable-oil prices during 2011.”
Palm
oil on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange has rallied for 10 weeks,
gaining about 26 per cent on concern recent excess rains may disrupt
harvests in Malaysia and Indonesia. Prices are at the highest since July
2008.
Mistry, whose speech was read by a representative at the
conference, has been in the industry for more than 30 years. Godrej is
one of India’s biggest buyers of cooking oils.
Tightening
supplies and “inelastic demand” from countries including China will
extend the “crazy” price rallies this year, Tao Chen, chairman of Louis
Dreyfus Commodities (Beijing) Trading Co said at the conference.
Supplies
of soyabean, palm, coconut, groundnut, cotton, rapeseed and sunflower
oils will rise 3.5 million tonnes in the year to September 2011,
according to Mistry’s remarks. That’s less than the 3.8 million-tonne
gain he forecast on September 26. Demand in the same period would rise
as much as 5 million tonnes, according to the text.
An El
Nino-induced drought hurt oil-palm yields in Indonesia and Malaysia, the
largest producers, this year, while a La Nina-induced drought delayed
planting of the South American soyabean crop and hurt yields.
Palm oil and soyabean oil are the most consumed edible oils and are direct substitutes.
“The world situation in soyabeans is tighter with each day,” the text of the prepared remarks said.
“We are in the midst of the South American growing season and we have yet to see the full effects of this year’s La Nina.”
Soyabean
farmers in Brazil’s Mato Grosso state, accounting for about 30 per cent
of the nation’s crop, finished planting about 31 per cent of the
planned area as of October 28, the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural
Economics said. This time last year, growers had completed 51 per
cent, it said.
In Argentina, soyabean yields are forecast to be
lower than average because of dry weather, the Buenos Aires Cereals
Exchange said October 28. – Bloomberg
Source : Business Times
