Monthly Stock Comparison 2023

Monthly Stock Comparison 2023

Country : China
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
 Palm Oil (MT)Soybean Oil (MT)Sunflower Oil (MT)Rapeseed Oil (MT)Other Oils (MT)Total Ending Stocks (MT)
 202320222023202220232022202320222023202220232022
January918,000407,800677,300745,000147,500303,9001,744,8001,456,700
February943,400369,100596,900699,600200,500327,0001,740,8001,395,700
March911,800345,400541,100680,800240,600304,4001,693,5001,330,600
April762,400290,900631,900791,300359,600289,0001,753,9001,371,200
May 238,200 861,400  277,500  1,377,100
June 193,000 888,800  221,400  1,303,500
July 272,300 784,100  165,100  1,221,500
August 305,600 704,800  139,900  1,150,300
September 514,700 706,600  126,900  1,348,200
October 675,300 670,700  112,400  1,458,400
November 874,300 611,500  169,800  1,655,600
December 969,600 624,800  107,000  1,701,400

Total stock of the 3 major vegetable oils rose to 37-month high of 1.75 million MT by end April 2023, which is also an increase of 3.6% or 60,400 MT from Mar’s stock. The rise of stock was due to the active restocking activities by SBO and RSO importers and traders, which led to the sharp increase of these 2 vegetable oils’ stock.

The rise in SBO stock was mainly due to the surge of soybean crushing margins in Apr, which was risen from an average RMB46.25/MT (in Mar) to RMB358.50. The increase in soybean crushing margin was due to the improvement of pork prices and also the arrival of Brazilian soybean which in more price competitive. This has encouraged crushers to run their plants more often to satisfy the demand for SBM. Nevertheless, as the demand for cooking oil remains weak, the demand for SBO was not as strong as SBM, and this led to the increase of SBO stock in Apr by 90,800 MT or 16.8%.

Similarly, the aggressive crushing of rapeseed and also the import of RSO has also led to the build-up of RSO stock in China in April. The Apr’s stock level (359,600 MT) is the highest since Oct 2021 (387,200 MT).   The aggressive import of both rapeseed and RSO was merely to replenish the stock level in the country which was caused by the dropped in Canada’s canola output in 2022, but again, the poor uptake of cooking oil in China has caused the increase in RSO stock level for the 4th consecutive month in April 2023.  The active crushing of rapeseed in response to the seasonal growing demand of RSM from aquaculture sector has also further added more RSO to the stock level in China.

Different from both SBO and RSO, stock level of PO declined for the 2nd consecutive month in April to 762,400 MT.  This is due to the low import due to the high stock but at the same time and high consumption of PO due to attractive price against SBO (average discount of RMB1,047.50/MT) which offers good margin for the refiners especially when the needs to fractionate PL to lower melting point is lower due to the rising temperature.  Despite the drop in PO stock level, it is expected that the stock will continue to drop in May as market info indicates that the arrival of PO in May will remain low (estimated 400,000 MT) as most importers still think that the current stock level is still considered high which led to the widening of negative import margin in Apr to –RMB116.50.

Source: MPOC Market Intelligence

Stock figures will be updated no later than the 10th of every month

*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.

Country : India
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
 Palm Oil (MT)Soybean Oil (MT)Sunflower Oil (MT)Rapeseed Oil (MT)Other Oils (MT)Total Ending Stocks (MT)
 202320222023202220232022202320222023202220232022
January667,054398,777169,253154,598229,212154,6473,6371,065,519711,659
February623,359336,270113,401107,166194,13883,06543930,898526,544
March567,775349,212138,644127,988169,358119,11510875,777596,325
April448,951251,594132,989101,105175,11180,225756,960432,924
May 240,865 166,426 100,435   507,726
June 134,513 143,163 1,517   279,193
July 40,450 168,593 249   209,292
August 332,225 190,479 116,228   638,932
September 484,369 181,360 103,486   769,215
October 434,677 119,851 64,049   618,577
November 580,515 61,140 110,552   752,207
December 706,996 344,886 100,165   900,827

April 2023 stocks are 75% higher than April 2022 but 14% lower than the previous month, March 2023. This continues the decreasing stock level trends since the beginning of the year, with every month end stocks being lower than the previous month. POP stocks, at 449k, are lower by 21% compared to the 568K in the previous month, March, 2023; but 78% higher when compared to the 252K in April 2022. Soft Oils stocks have registered an increase of 70% compared to Apr 2022 but are practically unchanged compared to Mar 2023. CDSBO stocks rose 31% compared to Apr 2022 but lower by 4% compared to Mar 2023. CSFO stocks, for the same periods, rose by 118% and 3%, respectively. In POP, RBD Olein stocks at 174k, were lower by 18% compared to the 211K in Mar 2023. At the same time, CPO stocks fell to 205k from 307k in Mar 2023. The unchanged stock levels of Soft Oils at the end of Apr 2023, when PPO stocks fell by 21% compared to Mar 2023, is an indicator of increased Soft Oils imports. The Ukraine situation and price competitiveness of POP will continue to influence the composition of the import basket, as demonstrated in the significant increase in the proportion of Soft Oil imports in April 2023.

Source: MPOC Market Intelligence

Stock figures will be updated no later than the 10th of every month

*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.

Country : Pakistan
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
 Palm Oil (MT)Soybean Oil (MT)Sunflower Oil (MT)Rapeseed Oil (MT)Other Oils (MT)Total Ending Stocks (MT)
 202320222023202220232022202320222023202220232022
January369,445273,24233,50016,0002,000404,945289,242
February418,415203,36537,90010,500456,315213,865
March297,380186,86519,00025,740316,380212,605
April249,980267,23020,5009,200270,780276,430
May 170,390 24,150    194,540
June 58,720 37,200    95,920
July 249,830 36,600    286,430
August 289,756 32,000    321,756
September 278,870 37,330    316,200
October 214,078 43,120    257,198
November 286,370 32,300    318,670
December 332,105 21,500    353,605

At the end of April 2023, the edible oil stocks at Port Qasim Authority (PQA) and Karachi Port Trust (KPT) have recorded a figure of 270,780 MT which is 14.41% less than the closing stocks of the previous month. Out of the total 270,780MT of stocks available at Port Qasim Authority and Karachi Port, the stocks of RBD palm olein is showing the highest share of 50.01% followed by palm oil 33.98%. Palm oil and its various fractions have a share of 92.32% in the total ending stocks.

As anticipated in our earlier report, the oils and fats import in Pakistan in the month of April registered a figure of only 162,717 MT which the lowest recorded imports in 2023. The low arrival continued to put pressure on the stocks of oils and fats and resulted in a further decline of 14.4%.

At the end of April, the stocks of oils and fats in Pakistan are slightly below its optimal level but the imports are likely to improve in the month of May which should maintain the current stock level.

Source: MPOC Market Intelligence

Stock figures will be updated no later than the 10th of every month

*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.

Country : Bangladesh
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
 Palm Oil (MT)Soybean Oil (MT)Sunflower Oil (MT)Rapeseed Oil (MT)Other Oils (MT)Total Ending Stocks (MT)
 202320222023202220232022202320222023202220232022
January131,53024,47049,83019,050181,36043,520
February138,87059,28054,90025,830193,77085,110
March149,10088,18067,90028,700217,000123,880
April138,96036,68879,52028,817218,48068,005
May 28,635 25,525    54,160
June 21,525 19,910    41,435
July 52,000 54,530    106,530
August 76,450 75,400    151,850
September 140,700 114,560    255,260
October 220,345 93,775    314,120
November 184,830 82,940    267,770
December 169,135 53,715    222,850

April 2023 stocks are 221 % Higher than Apr 2022 and 0.68% higher than the previous month, Mar 2023. Meanwhile, POP Stock lower by 7.29% compared to Mar 2023, Soft Oil stocks increased by 17.11%. RBD Olein stocks are at healthy levels compared to CPO. Palm Oil & soft oil stocks expected to be increase in May 2023 considering upcoming EIDUL ADHA and continuation of government Subsidy. Prices of soybean and Palm oil in local market are still on the higher side which impacting the customer.

Source: MPOC Market Intelligence

Due to unforeseen circumstances, stock figures for Bangladesh will be delayed

*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.

Country : USA
Oils and Fats Ending Stocks
Palm Oil (MT) Soybean Oil (MT)* Sunflower Oil (MT)* Rapeseed Oil (MT) Other Oils (MT) Total Ending Stocks (MT)*
2023 2022 2023 2022 2023 2022 2023 2022 2023 2022 2023 2022
January 159,000 154,000 878,000 942,000 26,000 23,000 102,000 52,000 116,000 113,000 1,281,000 1,284,000
February 159,000 154,000 878,000 942,000 26,000 23,000 102,000 52,000 116,000 113,000 1,281,000 1,284,000
March 159,000 154,000 878,000 896,000 26,000 23,000 131,000 77,000 116,000 113,000 1,310,000 1,263,000
April   159,000   774,000   23,000   88,000   113,000   1,157,000
May   159,000   763,000   23,000   88,000   113,000   1,146,000
June   159,000   754,000   23,000   71,000   113,000   1,120,000
July   159,000   822,000   23,000   71,000   113,000   1,188,000
August   159,000   828,000   23,000   67,000   113,000   1,190,000
September   159,000   837,000   23,000   73,000   113,000   1,205,000
October   159,000   843,000   23,000   81,000   116,000   1,222,000
November   159,000   862,000   23,000   79,000   116,000   1,239,000
December   159,000   862,000   23,000   86,000   116,000   1,246,000
US ending stock reported a total of 1,310,000 MT for March 2023, reflecting 2.3% increment when compared to the previous month. From that amount, the ending stock of palm oil, soybean oil, sunflower oil and rapeseed oil recorded no changes in the end stock when compared to the volume from the previous month. Currently, there is a supply imbalance in the soybean complex. In Brazil, the soybean crop is getting bigger. This contrasts with soybean stocks in the USA being 6.7 million MT lower than the previous year in March 2022, resulting in high price premium for US soybean. The abundance of Brazilian soybean supply also contrasts with severe shortage in Argentina. The Argentine government has launched the third version of soybean dollar in April 2023. A preferential exchange rate of 300 pesos per US dollar will be applied during April 10 – May 31, which is expected to help improve soybean marketing in Argentina. However, the volume of Argentine soybean entering the market will be limited by high inflation, against which the storing of soybean is the best hedge for farmers. Source: *USDA, MPOC Estimates
*Disclaimer: This document has been prepared based on information from sources believed to be reliable but we do not make any representations as to its accuracy. This document is for information only and opinion expressed may be subject to change without notice and we will not accept any responsibility and shall not be held responsible for any loss or damage arising from or in respect of any use or misuse or reliance on the contents. We reserve our right to delete or edit any information on this site at any time at our absolute discretion without giving any prior notice.

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