Palm Oil Internet Seminar or in short POINTERS is a web-based seminar concept where updates on developments in the important oils and fats sector will be brought promptly to the industry circles, clickable on their own Internet access from wherever they are.

The idea is to bring about convenience, time and cost savings, as well meaningful information sharing that connects the oils and fats industry efficiently and effectively. All papers will be posted on the site for one week and participants will be able to download the papers and post questions to the authors, who have lent their expertise, during that one week period.

Active participation from among the audience is expected to make the Internet palm oil seminars more useful and meaningful. Register now and be the first to take advantage of this innovative way to get valuable pointers from the oils and fats industry circles.

 1.

Abstract:

In recent years, we have seen growing interest among palm oil industry players in economic forecasting. Yet questions appeared when industry players were asked concerning supply and demand of global oils and fats.

In response to mounting worldwide interest in economic forecasting, we have decided to take the challenge to construct a very distinctive economic modeling initiative with deeper analysis on “price outlook” aspect of palm oil supply and demand.

The contribution of CPO by palm oil producers regions (i.e. Malaysia & Indonesia) to the total production of vegetable oils in the world has increased considerably in the past several years. Similarly, the contributions of other vegetable oils producers around the world are also equally important.

In view of publication reasons, we feel that it would be too numerous to include all the global oil producers so our objective for now is to focus on net exporters and importers of vegetable oils regions (i.e. China, India & Americas) which directly influence the total global supply and demand of oils and fats. However, for the benefit of the readers we shall sum up all the global oils and fats regions on the last section of this paper.

Abstract:

The oils and fats sector had shown record that both its production and consumption had increased at almost the same rate in the past. Any differences between them will indicate either an oversupply or shortage situations of oils and fats in the world; oversupply occurred when production exceeded consumption and shortage when otherwise. Thus, world production and consumption of oils and fats in 1976 were 45.9 and 47.3 million tonnes respectively (shortage) while in 2009 both were at about 163.9 million tonnes (almost equilibrium).

From all the 17 oils and fats, palm oil emerged to be the significant player that helps expansion in the production and consumption of the oils and fats. It appeared to be one of the smallest oil being produced and consumed in 1976 (1.6% and 6% of the world production and consumption of oils and fats respectively) and gradually surged to become the world largest produced and consumed oil in 2009 (both at 28% of the world production and consumption of oils and fats).

Malaysia and Indonesia are the two main producers of palm oil which is being consumed in all over the world. Palm oil will continue to be the main oil produced due to its highest productivity and as such the main oil to be consumed in future due to its relatively cheaper price and comparatively a healthy oil. Its production in Malaysia is expected to be about 17.8 million tonnes while Indonesia about 23.5 million tonnes in 2010.

Future palm oil supply will come mainly from Indonesia. Although Malaysia is facing land constrain to expand its oil palm area, increase in future production from this country is expected through an increase in its productivity. While palm oil sustained at the premier position, its price, however, fluctuates together with other oils and fats. Palm oil price associated closely with its main competitor, soybean oil, price and lately with price of crude petroleum price. However, due to the complexity of the oils and fats sector, other factors may need to be considered in evaluating price of palm oil. As such, its price is projected at RM2,500 per tonne in 2010.

3.

Abstract:

1. Technical Analysis of Crude Palm Oil Futures on weekly (long term) and daily (short term) charts: Pattern Studies Price Trend Support and Resistance

Inter-market Analysis: Crude Oil and US Dollar Analysis Correlation between Crude Palm Oil, Crude Oil and US Dollar

3. Forecasts for Crude Palm Oil Futures in the short (1 to 6 months) and long (6 to 12 months) term.

Abstract:

The report indicates that the healthy economic trend provides a better environment for oils & fats industry. China’s economy registered a double-digit growth rate in the first half of the year, up 11.1 percent from a year earlier, according to preliminary statistics released by National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

It analyzes the supply and demand of the oils and fats market in China. The edible oil consumption in China has been increasing due to the accelerating urbanization and improved living condition with the result of its economic boom, leading to the surging vegetable oils imports by the country.

Recently, China is the largest vegetable oil importers across the world. Three major oils, that is soybean oil, palm oil and rapeseed oil, top the list of import volume, accounting for 18% of the world’s trade volume. China’s palm oil consumption account for over 15% of the world’s total and palm oil products are the favorite category with the growing domestic demands. About 80% of total palm oil was consumed in food sector, including cooking oil, instant noodles, bakery, confectionery, chocolate, ice cream sectors, etc. in 2009.

Palm products, on the other hand, have a sound performance in non-food sectors, such as animal husbandry, oleochemicals sectors, etc. The paper demonstrates that in order to seize the opportunities and meet the challenges, we should make every effort to consolidate and expand the existing markets and to explore the new fields.