oil climbed for a third day to near a 27-month high on speculation that

the increase in output in Malaysia may lag behind consumption, and

record Chinese demand for soybeans is keeping prices of the rival oil

high.

The January-delivery contract added as much as 1.7 per cent

to RM3,330 (US$1,077) a metric ton before ending the morning session at

RM3,324 on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange.

Yesterday, futures closed at the highest since July 21, 2008.
“The

October production surge may not be sufficient to take the industry

through the year-end festive demand and the first quarter cyclical

downturn in production” as Malaysian exports rise faster than output,

Bernard Ching, an analyst at ECM Libra Capital Sdn Bhd, said in a note

today. “Crude palm oil prices will be strong going into the first

quarter of 2011.”

Exports of the commodity from Malaysia rose 6.4

per cent to 12.4 million tons in the first nine months from the same

period a year earlier, according to the nation’s palm oil board. Output

expanded 1.6 per cent to 12.67 million tons, the data show.

the country’s biggest festival, which falls in early February. Malaysia

is the top palm oil producer after Indonesia.
The palm oil board will announce data for October output, exports and inventory tomorrow.

Edible-oil

prices may increase as growth in global supply fails to keep pace with

the rise in demand for a third straight year, with weather patterns

hurting crops, according to Godrej International Ltd. Director Dorab

Mistry. The company is one of India’s biggest buyers of vegetable oils.

Global Supplies

Supplies

of soybean, palm, coconut, groundnut, cotton, rapeseed and sunflower

oils will rise 3.5 million tons in the year to September 2011, Mistry

said Nov. 7, less than the 3.8 million-ton gain he forecast on Sept. 26.

Demand in the same period would rise as much as 5 million tons, he

said.

Palm oil may exceed RM3,300 in the next few weeks and

extend gains in 2011, Mistry said. Soybean oil in Argentina, the largest

exporter, may climb to US$1,250 a ton by December, raising his forecast

from US$1,050, he added in a separate email.

“The soybean market is plagued with supply concerns as stock is being mopped up by China,” Ching said.

China’s

soybean imports in the 2010-2011 marketing year may be as much as 60

million tons, according to unidentified global grain trading companies

cited by the China National Grain & Oils Information Center on Oct.

25. The center’s own forecast is for purchases of 54 million tons in the

year that started Oct. 1, compared with 50.3 million tons a year

earlier, it said.

Soybean oil traded in Chicago rose as much as

1.1 per cent to 52.57 cents a pound, the highest intraday price since

Sept. 2, 2008, and traded at 52.42 cents at 12:27 p.m. Singapore time.

In

China, palm oil for September delivery in Dalian added as much as 2.5

per cent, and paused 1.8 per cent higher at 9,640 yuan (US$1,445) a ton

at the 11:30 a.m. break. September-delivery soybean oil rose as much as

1.6 per cent, before pausing 1.3 per cent higher at 10,326 yuan.

CME

Group Inc.’s January palm oil contract, pegged to the Malaysian

benchmark price, advanced as much as 1.5 per cent to US$1,072.50 a ton.

Yesterday, it reached the highest level since the contract began trading

in May. – Bloomberg